Study on Digital Economy and Tourism Economic Cycles Based on the MS-VAR Model

The digital economy provides new momentum for the high-quality development of the tourism economy by optimizing resource allocation, fostering new tourism formats, and enhancing market flexibility.However, the question of whether the digital economy can contribute to the stabilization of the tourism economic cycle has yet to be thoroughly explored.This study employs panel data from 31 provinces and regions in China from 2010 to 2022,using a combination of the MS-VAR model and panel regression analysis for empirical investigation.The results show that the cyclical fluctuations of the digital economy are significantly larger than those of the tourism economy.Nevertheless, the digital economy plays a positive role in promoting tourism stability, with clear spatiotemporal heterogeneity.The specific manifestation is that the influence is most significant in the eastern region, followed by the central region, while the influence in the western region is weakest, and as time goes on, this influence is becoming stronger.