老年社会保障高质量发展的水平测度及其障碍性因子分析

Measurement of the Level of High-Quality Development of Elderly Social Security and Analysis of Its Obstructive Factors

  • 摘要: 老年社会保障高质量发展是我国现代化建设的重要组成部分,已是新时代改善民生、积极应对人口老龄化的必然之举。选取2013—2022年中国31个省份的面板数据,采用主成分分析法、熵权-TOPSIS法、障碍度模型对老年社会保障高质量发展进行研究。研究发现,我国老年社会保障向着高质量方向发展,但仍处于低水平阶段;在区域与省域层面显现空间分异特征;从系统层来看,最关键的阻碍要素始终是创新性和发展性,而普惠性和系统性是障碍度较低的两个要素;从指标层来看,样本期内障碍因子发生完全转变,2013年的障碍要素集中于创新要素短缺、基础保障薄弱及制度适配滞后,体现为发展初期的要素性与制度性瓶颈;而2022年的障碍要素则转向产业结构升级乏力、非农经济占比偏低及投资效率低下等深层次经济结构性问题。

     

    Abstract: The high-quality development of social security for older adults is a vital component of China’s modernization drive, which is an inevitable move in the new era to improve people's livelihood and actively respond to population aging. This study employs panel data from China’s 31 provinces spanning 2013–2022, utilizing principal component analysis, entropy-weighted TOPSIS, and an obstacle degree model to examine the high-quality development of social security for the elderly. The findings reveal that the social security for the elderly in China is progressing toward high quality but it is still at a low level. Spatial differentiation is evident at both regional and provincial levels. From a systemic perspective, the most critical obstacles persistently involve innovation and development, while universality and systemic integrity present relatively lower barriers. At the indicator level, the nature of obstacles is experiencing a complete transformation during the sample period. The obstacles in 2013 were mainly concentrated on the shortage of innovative elements, weak basic support and lagging institutional adaptation, which manifested as the element-based and institutional bottlenecks in the early stage of development. By 2022, obstacles has shifted to deeper structural economic issues such as sluggish industrial upgrading, low non-agricultural economic contribution, and inefficient investment.

     

/

返回文章
返回