基于ResLogit的电动汽车购买行为影响因素研究

Research on Electric Vehicle Purchasing Behavior Based on ResLogit Model

  • 摘要: 为了突破现有电动汽车研究聚焦于购买意愿的局限,深入探究消费者电动汽车实际购买行为的影响因素以助力市场推广与政策制定,针对当前研究较少全面考量出行特征等多维度因素对实际购买行为的影响以及缺乏对电动汽车与燃油汽车市场关系深入探讨的问题,构建了涵盖出行特征等多变量的结构方程模型,并创新性采用ResLogit模型,以上海地区消费者电动汽车购买行为为样本展开实证分析,同时运用弹性分析量化各因素影响程度。研究发现购买意愿、续航里程、牌照政策、小汽车通勤频率及家庭规模等因素对消费者电动汽车实际购买决策具有显著正向影响,续航里程与牌照政策是关键驱动因素,并据此提出激发市场潜力的策略;此外还首次揭示了电动汽车市场与燃油汽车市场在发展过程中存在相互促进的协同效应,为汽车产业可持续发展提供了新理论视角与实践指导。

     

    Abstract: To overcome the limitations of existing electric vehicle (EV) research that primarily focuses on purchase intention, this study aims to explore the determinants of actual EV purchasing behavior in greater depth, thereby supporting market promotion and policy formulation. Addressing the current gaps in the literature—specifically, the lack of comprehensive consideration of multidimensional factors such as travel characteristics, and the insufficient exploration of the relationship between EV and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) markets—this research constructs a structural equation model (SEM) incorporating multiple variables including travel-related features. In addition, it innovatively employs the ResLogit model to conduct an empirical analysis based on consumer data from Shanghai. Elasticity analysis is further used to quantify the relative impact of each factor. The findings indicate that purchase intention, driving range, license plate policy, private car commuting frequency, and household size all exert significant positive effects on actual EV purchasing decisions. Among these, driving range and license plate policy emerge as the most critical driving forces, suggesting targeted strategies to unlock market potential. Moreover, this study is the first move to empirically reveal a synergistic effect between the EV and ICEV markets during their development processes, highlighting a mutually reinforcing dynamic. These insights provide a novel theoretical perspective and practical guidance for promoting the sustainable development of the automotive industry.

     

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