Abstract:
To overcome the limitations of existing electric vehicle (EV) research that primarily focuses on purchase intention, this study aims to explore the determinants of actual EV purchasing behavior in greater depth, thereby supporting market promotion and policy formulation. Addressing the current gaps in the literature—specifically, the lack of comprehensive consideration of multidimensional factors such as travel characteristics, and the insufficient exploration of the relationship between EV and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) markets—this research constructs a structural equation model (SEM) incorporating multiple variables including travel-related features. In addition, it innovatively employs the ResLogit model to conduct an empirical analysis based on consumer data from Shanghai. Elasticity analysis is further used to quantify the relative impact of each factor. The findings indicate that purchase intention, driving range, license plate policy, private car commuting frequency, and household size all exert significant positive effects on actual EV purchasing decisions. Among these, driving range and license plate policy emerge as the most critical driving forces, suggesting targeted strategies to unlock market potential. Moreover, this study is the first move to empirically reveal a synergistic effect between the EV and ICEV markets during their development processes, highlighting a mutually reinforcing dynamic. These insights provide a novel theoretical perspective and practical guidance for promoting the sustainable development of the automotive industry.