基于系统动力学的兰州综合交通枢纽绿色转型研究

Research on the Green Transformation of Lanzhou Comprehensive Transportation Hub Based on System Dynamics

  • 摘要:
    目的 为揭示综合交通枢纽绿色转型的动力机理与演化规律,
    方法 以兰州综合交通枢纽为研究对象,构建包含区域经济、综合交通、能源消耗和环境承载4个子系统的系统动力学模型,并基于VENSIM PLE平台设置运输结构调整、环保政策强化、科技投入提升及协同发展等情景,对枢纽运输效率、污染物排放和经济产出进行动态仿真。
    结果 单纯调整运输结构对污染物排放的抑制作用较弱,碳强度改善有限;提高环保政策松紧系数能够显著降低污染物排放,同时保持经济效益增长;提升科技投入系数可使单位周转量碳排放强度下降32.7%,并同步增强经济增长效应;协同发展情景在减排、增效和系统优化方面表现最佳。
    结论 兰州综合交通枢纽绿色转型应以政策调控、技术进步与运输结构优化协同推进,为西部陆港型综合交通枢纽绿色升级及相关政策制定提供量化依据。

     

    Abstract: :
    Objective To reveal the driving mechanisms and evolutionary patterns of green transformation in comprehensive transportation hubs.
    Method This study takes the Lanzhou Comprehensive Transportation Hub as the research object and constructs a system dynamics model encompassing four subsystems: regional economy, comprehensive transportation, energy consumption, and environmental carrying capacity. Based on the VENSIM PLE platform, scenarios such as transportation structure adjustment, intensified environmental policies, enhanced technological investment, and synergistic development are established to conduct dynamic simulations of hub transportation efficiency, pollutant emissions, and economic output.
    Result Solely adjusting the transportation structure has a weak inhibitory effect on pollutant emissions, with limited carbon intensity improvement. Increasing the environmental policy tightness coefficient can significantly reduce pollutant emissions while maintaining economic growth. Raising the technological investment coefficient can reduce carbon emissions per turnover by 32.7%, simultaneously enhancing economic growth effects. The synergistic development scenario performs best in emission reduction, efficiency improvement, and system optimization.
    Conclusion The green transformation of the Lanzhou Comprehensive Transportation Hub should be jointly advanced through policy regulation, technological progress, and transportation structure optimization, providing quantitative support for the green upgrading of land port-type comprehensive transportation hubs in western China and related policy formulation.

     

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