数字经济对电子商务示范城市经济韧性提升的影响研究

Research the Impact of digital economy on the resilience of urban economy in China's e-commerce demonstration cities

  • 摘要: 在全球化与数字化交织的背景下,我国城市经济系统的稳定与可持续发展面临严峻挑战,提升城市经济韧性、增强其抵御冲击与恢复转型的能力,已成为推动经济高质量发展的关键路径。以国家电子商务示范城市为研究对象,构建城市经济韧性与数字经济的综合评价体系,依托2010—2024年我国68个电子商务示范城市的面板数据,运用固定效应模型与中介效应模型,系统考察数字经济对城市经济韧性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:数字经济显著提升了电子商务示范城市的经济韧性;机制分析发现,产业结构高级化并未发挥正向中介传导作用,而是呈现遮掩效应:数字经济对城市经济韧性存在显著正向直接效应,但其通过产业结构高级化形成负向间接效应,反向间接路径削弱了数字经济的总体提升效果。建议强化数字基础设施建设、推动产业—创新双循环、实施差异化区域政策,充分发挥数字经济在提升城市经济韧性中的赋能作用。

     

    Abstract: Against the intertwined backdrop of globalization and digitalization, the stability and sustainable development of China’s urban economic system are confronted with severe challenges. Enhancing urban economic resilience and cities’ capacity to withstand shocks as well as achieve recovery and transformation has become a critical pathway for advancing high-quality economic development. Taking national e-commerce demonstration cities as the research subject, this paper constructs comprehensive evaluation systems for urban economic resilience and the digital economy. Based on panel data of 68 e-commerce demonstration cities in China from 2010 to 2024, this study adopts the fixed-effect model and mediation effect model to systematically investigate the impact of the digital economy on urban economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that the digital economy significantly improves the economic resilience of e-commerce demonstration cities. Mechanism analysis indicates that industrial structure advancement does not exert a positive mediating transmission effect but presents a suppression effect: the digital economy has a significant positive direct effect on urban economic resilience, yet it generates a negative indirect effect via industrial structure advancement, and this reverse indirect path weakens the overall improvement effect of the digital economy. It is suggested to strengthen digital infrastructure construction, promote the dual circulation of industry and innovation, and implement differentiated regional policies, so as to give full play to the enabling role of the digital economy in improving urban economic resilience.

     

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