民生与民心的交汇:新时代公众民生安全感的多层次效应分析

The Intersection of People's livelihood and People’s support: A Multi-level Analysis of Public Security Perception in the New Era

  • 摘要: “民生”和“民心”都是“最大的政治”,民生安全感在一定意义上可以作为两者的一个重要交汇点。本文构建了一个公众民生安全感的理论分析框架,并运用一项全国大型调查数据对其进行了一个综合测度,然后通过对接合并个体与地区层次的数据构建了多层次模型,探讨了个体特征和发展环境两层次因素对公众民生安全感的影响。结果发现:公众民生安全感在受到人口学、社会经济地位和社会态度变量等显著影响的同时,也同样受到了宏观层次变量的显著影响;验证了经济增长和以民生性支出为表征的公共财政因素对公众民生安全感的保障和支持作用,同时也得到了经济增长和公共财政因素主要是通过社会态度变量发挥调节作用的结果。根据相关理论探讨和实证分析结果,本文提出现阶段要在不断增进民生福祉的同时提升公众民生安全感,主要需要加强相关因素影响和机制路径的综合性研究,将公众民生安全感水平及其变化作为提升获得感、幸福感、安全感的重要指引,并以多层次因素影响分析为依据加强对公众预期的管理和引导。

     

    Abstract: "People's livelihood" and "People’s support" constitute the essence of "paramount governance," with people’s sense of security serving as a critical nexus between them. This study constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing people’s sense of security and operationalizes it through comprehensive measurement using data from a nationally representative survey. By integrating individual and regional-level data, a multilevel model is developed to examine the effects of individual characteristics and developmental environment on people’s sense of security. The empirical results reveal that people’s sense of security is simultaneously shaped by both micro-level variables (demographics, socioeconomic status, and social attitudes) and macro-level factors. Specifically, economic growth and public finance expenditures (particularly those targeting People's livelihood improvement) play a protective and supportive role in enhancing people’s sense of security. However, these macro-level factors primarily exert their influence through mediating effects on social attitudes. Based on theoretical insights and empirical analysis, this study proposes that at the current stage, while continuously improving People's livelihood, enhancing people’s sense of security requires: (1) Strengthening integrated research on the mechanisms through which various factors influence people’s sense of security; (2) Utilizing the level and dynamics of people’s sense of security as key indicators for optimizing policies aimed at enhancing people's sense of fulfillment, happiness, and security;(3) Strengthening the management and guidance of public expectations based on multilevel factor analysis.

     

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