货币数字化对中国跨境商品贸易潜力及效率的影响

Impact of Currency Digitalization on Potential and Efficiency of China's Cross-Border Goods Trade

  • 摘要: 央行数字货币作为法定货币的数字化形态,其发展为跨境商品贸易创造了新机遇。采用2014—2022年我国与54个国家双边贸易的面板数据,构建随机前沿引力模型,测算双边商品贸易效率,并考察贸易国央行数字货币发展对我国跨境商品贸易的影响。研究发现:我国双边商品贸易效率整体较低,且各国贸易效率差异较大,具有充足的潜力空间;贸易国央行数字货币发展对我国跨境商品贸易影响显著,这一结论在更换核心解释变量、剔除部分样本、检验互为因果问题后依旧成立;且贸易国央行数字货币发展对我国商品进口贸易、与发展中国家跨境商贸的影响更为显著;贸易国央行数字货币可降低贸易成本,促进我国跨境商贸发展。因此,应基于CIPS系统建设多边央行数字货币跨境支付网络;依据贸易国央行数字货币的发展阶段采取差异化策略,深化同发展中国家的双边合作,推动我国跨境商品贸易高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: The development of central bank digital Currencies (CBDCs), as digital forms of legal tender, creates new opportunities for cross-border goods trade. Using panel data of China's bilateral trade with 54 countries from 2014 to 2022, this paper employs a stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate trade efficiency and investigate the impact of CBDC development in trading partner countries on China's cross-border goods trade. This research findings are shown as below: China's bilateral goods trade efficiency is generally low overall, with substantial variation among trading partners, indicating significant untapped potential for improvement; CBDC development in trading partner countries significantly influenced China's cross-border goods trade, and this conclusion remains robust after replacing core explanatory variables, excluding specific samples, and testing for endogeneity; the development of CBDCs in trading partner countries exerts a more pronounced impact on China's goods imports and its trades with developing countries; CBDCs in trading partner countries can promote the development of China's cross-border trade by reducing trade costs. Accordingly, China should establish a multilateral CBDC cross-border payment network based on the CIPS system; adopt differentiated strategies according to the development stages of CBDCs in trading countries; deepen bilateral cooperation with developing countries; and promote the high-quality development of China's cross-border goods trade.

     

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