融合有限理性与小世界网络的异质居民绿色出行演化博弈

Evolutionary Game of Heterogeneous Residents' Green Travel Integrating Bounded Rationality and Small-World Network

  • 摘要: 为实现城市可持续发展,提高绿色出行比例,充分考虑居民的有限理性特征,探究城市居民绿色出行的演化机制。首先基于智能体仿真建立演化博弈模型,构建异质居民出行方式的感知收益矩阵以及NW小世界网络下的出行者社交网络,并在出行策略转换规则中考虑惯性与突变;然后通过仿真分析居民有限理性、网络节点失活对系统演化的影响,并对异质出行者比例、政府调控措施与出行激励下居民绿色出行选择的影响进行分析。结果表明:在惯性概率为98%、突变概率为3%,以及失活概率为10%的条件下,仿真系统可以更快达到稳定;体验型出行者增加使绿色出行比例降低了4.35%,绿色型出行者则使该比例升高了7.29%,中立型出行者的出行选择更接近体验型出行者;同时实施公交专用道与机非分离措施可使绿色出行比例达到最高50.59%;相比提高出行方式的智能化程度,提高出行者的低碳环保意识对绿色出行比例的提升效果更显著。

     

    Abstract: To promote the sustainable development of cities and enhance the share of green travel, this paper fully considers the bounded rationality of residents and explores the evolutionary mechanism of green travel for urban residents. Firstly, an evolutionary game model is established based on agent simulation to construct the perceived benefit matrix of heterogeneous residents' travel modes and the social network of travelers within the NW small-world network. Inertia and mutation are incorporated into the travel strategy switching rules. Then, the effects of residents' bounded rationality and the deactivation of network nodes on system evolution are analyzed through simulation. Additionally, the influence of the proportion of heterogeneous travelers, government regulatory measures, and travel incentives on residents' green travel choices is examined. The results indicate that under an inertia probability of 98%, a mutation probability of 3%, and a node deactivation probability of 10%, the simulation system converges to a stable state more rapidly. An increase in the proportion of experience-oriented travelers leads to a 4.35% decrease in the share of green travel, while an increase in green-oriented travelers results in a 7.29% increase. Neutral travelers exhibit travel behaviors more closely aligned with those of experience-oriented travelers. Moreover, the simultaneous implementation of dedicated bus lanes and motor–non-motor vehicle separation measures can raise the green travel proportion to a peak of 50.59%. Compared to improving the intelligence of travel modes, raising the awareness of low-carbon and environmental protection among travelers has a more significant effect on increasing the proportion of green travel.

     

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