一种BiLSTM-MCEP融合模型的短期交通流量预测

A BiLSTM-MCEP Fusion Model for Traffic Flow Prediction

  • 摘要: 对传统时间序列模型的局限性进行深入分析,发现其主要依赖线性假设,难以有效捕捉复杂数据中的非线性动态关系。针对这一问题,研究了一种融合全连接层和KAN网络的双路径设计,以BiLSTM模型为基础,融入多尺度卷积和高效通道注意力机制,构建了BiLSTM-MCEP混合模型用于短时交通流量预测。通过采用端到端的学习框架模式,利用神经网络间的优势互补特性,充分挖掘不同时间段的历史数据,从而提升了模型的整体性能和预测效率。基于PeMS交通数据集进行了实验验证,结果显示该模型RMSE为0.04815,MAE为0.03543,MSE为0.00232R20.94368。对比实验结果表明,与BiLSTM模型相比,该方法在建模准确性和鲁棒性方面均实现了显著提升,展现出较强的预测能力。

     

    Abstract: An in-depth analysis of the limitations of traditional time series models reveals that they mainly rely on linear assumptions, which makes it difficult to effectively capture the nonlinear dynamic relationships in complex data. To address this problem, a dual-path design incorporating fully connected layers and KAN networks is investigated, and a BiLSTM-MCEP hybrid model is constructed for short-term traffic flow prediction based on the BiLSTM model, incorporating multiscale convolution and efficient channel attention mechanism. By adopting an end-to-end learning framework model and utilizing the advantageous complementary properties among neural networks to fully mine historical data from different time periods, thus improving the overall performance and prediction efficiency of the model. Based on the PeMS traffic dataset, the experimental validation is carried out, and the results show that the model has an RMSE of 0.04815, an MAE of 0.03543, an MSE of 0.00232, and an R2 of 0.94368. Comparison of the experimental results shows that, compared with the BiLSTM model, the method achieves a significant increase in modelling accuracy and robustness, and demonstrates strong prediction ability.

     

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