老年人公交客流与建成环境非线性关系研究

Nonlinear Effects of Built Environment on Elderly’s Bus Ridership

  • 摘要: 揭示建成环境对老年人公交客流的影响机理,对解决人口老龄化社会交通出行难题至关重要。本研究基于公交智能刷卡、GPS、路网、兴趣点(point of interest, POI)等多源数据,构建轻量级梯度提升机(light gradient boosting machine, LightGBM)模型,探究建成环境对老年人多时段的出发与到达客流的非线性影响效应。结果显示:公交线路数量、公交站点数量、公交供给能力等指标相对重要性较高,且正向驱动公交客流;商业住宅、医疗保健、购物服务等POI服务设施对老年人出发和到达客流均表现出较高的重要性,且存在明显的阈值效应;区别于公交可达性各类指标的影响较为薄弱,道路密度的相对重要性和非线性影响突出,说明路网便捷性是促进老年人公交客流的关键。研究深入解析了建成环境对老年人公交客流的影响机理,为适老化常规公交优化设计决策提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Revealing the influence mechanism of the built environment on the elderly’s bus ridership is crucial for solving travel-related traffic problems in an aging society. Based on multi-source data including bus smart card swiping data, GPS data, road network data, and point of interest (POI) data, this study constructs a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model to explore the nonlinear influence effect of the built environment on the elderly’s departure and arrival bus passenger flow across multiple time periods. The results indicate that indicators such as the number of bus routes, the number of bus stops, and public transport supply capacity have high relative importance and positively drive bus passenger flow. POI service facilities covering commercial residence, medical health care, shopping services and other categories present high importance for both the elderly’s departure and arrival bus passenger flow, with significant threshold effects. Bus accessibility indicators have limited influence on the results. By contrast, road density shows high relative importance and obvious nonlinear effects, revealing that road network convenience is critical to increase elderly bus passenger flow. This study thoroughly analyzes the influence mechanism of the built environment on the elderly’s bus passenger flow, providing a scientific reference for the optimal design and decision-making of age-friendly conventional public transport services.

     

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