带状城市形态下商业中心演化与消费者行为研究以兰州市为例

Evolution of Commercial Centers and Consumer Behavior in Linear UrbanForm: A Case Study of Lanzhou

  • 摘要: 在带状城市形态和数字经济叠加作用下,商业中心演化呈现出与传统组团式、放射式城市不同的空间重构路径。以中国西北典型带状城市兰州市为例,本文利用2013—2023年POI数据与问卷调查数据,构建商业中心活力指标,刻画西关十字、西站十字和铁路局三大商业中心的空间格局演变与消费行为变化,并基于 Mantel 检验和 XGBoost 模型识别其主要驱动因素。研究发现:1)在沿黄河主廊道的线性空间约束下,兰州商业中心呈现“核心稳定—节点升级—边缘衰退”的结构性分化,在新兴交通枢纽周边逐渐形成新的综合型商业增长极;2)人口集聚、公共交通可达性与消费能力是带状城市商业中心演化的关键驱动力,且对不同类型商圈表现出显著的非线性和阈值效应;3)线上消费并未简单替代实体消费,而是通过改变消费频率和业态组合,推动成熟商圈功能升级、加速边缘商圈功能下沉。基于此,本文提出面向带状城市的商业中心分级分类管控思路:强化主廊道沿线综合型节点的高强度集聚功能,引导老旧商圈向社区型与生活服务型转型,控制弱势区段新增大体量商业供给,并将商业活力监测纳入城市存量空间精细化治理体系。研究为 GeoAI 等智能技术嵌入城市商业空间规划提供了实证支持,也为其他带状或受地形约束城市优化商业布局和提升城市发展韧性提供借鉴。

     

    Abstract: Under the combined influence of linear urban form and the digital economy, the evolution of commercial centers follows a spatial restructuring path that differs from that of conventional clustered and radial urban forms. Taking Lanzhou, a typical linear city in Northwest China, as an example, this study uses POI data and questionnaire survey data from 2013 to 2023 to construct a commercial center vitality index. It characterizes the evolution of spatial patterns and changes in consumer behavior in three major commercial centers, namely Xiguan Cross, Xizhan Cross, and Tieluju Cross, and identifies their main driving factors based on the Mantel test and the XGBoost model. The results show that: 1) under the linear spatial constraints along the main corridor of the Yellow River, Lanzhou’s commercial centers exhibit structural differentiation characterized by “core stability–node upgrading–peripheral decline,” and new comprehensive commercial growth poles have gradually formed around emerging transportation hubs; 2) population agglomeration, public transport accessibility, and consumption capacity are key driving forces behind the evolution of commercial centers in linear cities, showing significant nonlinear and threshold effects across different types of business districts; 3) online consumption does not simply replace physical consumption. Instead, it promotes the functional upgrading of mature business districts and accelerates the functional reorientation of marginal business districts by changing consumption frequency and the combination of business formats. Based on these findings, this study proposes a hierarchical and differentiated governance framework for commercial centers in linear cities. It suggests strengthening the high-intensity agglomeration function of comprehensive nodes along the main corridor, guiding the transformation of old business districts toward community-based and daily-life service functions, controlling the expansion of new large-scale commercial supply in weaker urban segments, and incorporating commercial vitality monitoring into the refined governance of existing urban spaces. This study provides empirical support for embedding intelligent technologies such as GeoAI into urban commercial space planning, and offers references for optimizing commercial layouts and enhancing urban development resilience in other linear or terrain-constrained cities.

     

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