计及NWP风速误差修正的风电组合模型区间预测方法

A Novel Wind Power Combination Model Interval Prediction Method Based on NWP Wind Speed Error Correction

  • 摘要: 风资源的随机波动性导致数值天气预报(numerical weather forecasting,NWP)风速数据的相位滞后,进而导致风力发电预测的准确性较差。准确的风速预测可以提高可再生能源的利用率和并网电能质量。为解决这一问题,本文提出一种考虑NWP风速修正的风电功率预测方法。本方法通过输入修正后的NWP风速数据和变模态分解分解的历史风功率数据,采用优化超参数的双向门控递归模型预测风电功率。首先,结合非参数核密度估计和双向门控递归模型修正NWP风速数据。然后,分解历史风电功率,采用优化鲸鱼算法寻优预测模型超参数,并利用修正后的风速和模态分量预测风电功率。最后,在不同的风电场验证了该方法的点预测和区间预测结果。结果表明,该模型的预测精度高于其他模型。此外,使用速度修正方法后,决定系数提高了12.56%。四季区间预测实验中,当置信度在95%~75%间,PICP指数均高于0.9254,PINAW低于0.1068。因此,该模型可以提供更精确的置信区间,为未来高精度的风能预测提供可靠依据。

     

    Abstract: The stochastic volatility of wind resources causes phase lag in numerical weather prediction (NWP) wind speed data, which in turn leads to poor accuracy of wind power forecast. Accurate wind speed prediction can improve the utilization of renewable energy and grid-connected power quality. Aiming at this problem, a combined NWP wind speed correction with nonparametric kernel density estimation and a novel variable modal decomposition-bidirectional gated recurrent unit (VMD-BGRU) combined model for wind power prediction is proposed. Firstly, the NWP wind speed error sub-dataset is corrected by non-parametric kernel density estimation and BGRU network. Secondly, the improved optimized whale algorithm is used to identify BGRU parameters, as well as decompose the wind power with rime optimized VMD. Then, the corrected wind speed and modal components are used to forecast wind power. Finally, the results of point prediction and interval prediction of the method are verified in different wind farms. It shows that prediction accuracy of the model is higher than others. Moreover, after using speed correction method, the R2 is improved by 12.56%. For interval prediction of wind power in different seasons, when the confidence level is between 95% and 75%, the PICP index is above 0.9254 and the PINAW is below 0.1068. Therefore, the model can provide more accurate confidence intervals, which can provide a reliable basis for future high-precision power distribution.

     

/

返回文章
返回